Policy Blog NH

Revenue update: January 2012

New Hampshire state unrestricted revenue (that is, money collected in the General Fund and Education Trust Fund) came in $14.3 million higher than expected in January 2012, and 13.5 million higher than January 2011.

While that’s good news, the long-term projection is a little murkier.

A regional approach to policymaking?

New Hampshire's traditions of strong local control and town-based governance are deeply rooted in the state's politics and culture. But we at the Center have lately been thinking of ways that more cross-border, regional approaches might improve decision-making across the state.

States may feel pain from Super Committee failure

Many folks are wondering what the fiscal fallout will be from the Congressional Super Committee's failure to reach a deal on deficit reduction earlier this week. Federal law requires a series of automatic spending cuts to follow in the absence of such a deal. And among those potentially on the receiving end are state and local governments, many of which rely on federal spending and contracts to fuel their economies. Here's a helpful graphic showing how federal spending (both defense and otherwise) is spread among the 50 states. New Hampshire, you'll notice, claims a relatively small share of that pot.

 

Revenue update: Signs of bottoming out, but little sustained growth

The fiscal year is four months old, and monthly reports on revenue collections now offer a better glimpse of the state’s future financial position. Our take? The long, multiyear slide in state revenues appears to have ended, but no clear future trend is yet apparent.

More on college students and poverty

We received a good question from a reader about our most recent post, about the way the Census overstates poverty rates in towns with lots of college students:

>>Very interesting blog -- but wouldn't your proposed solution result in undercounting poor folks who are enrolled in a community college?

A study in poverty, or how college towns skew Census data

If you had to guess which New Hampshire town has the highest poverty rate, which would you pick? Maybe the state’s major urban center, Manchester, or a struggling former milltown like Berlin or Franklin.

But would you guess that Durham, home to the University of New Hampshire, had the highest poverty rate of any community in the state?

Will tighter state spending spur economic growth?

We often get asked the question:  What impact do recent state budget changes have on New Hampshire’s employment picture? The answer to questions is complicated by many factors, not the least of which is figuring out which changes in the job market are due directly to budgetary cuts. However, at a macro level, we can begin to understand the impact that a slowdown in government spending has on state employment. And we can begin to focus attention on another, perhaps more central, question: Will budgetary changes position New Hampshire to flourish in the future? 

Latest Census data fills in details on NH's economy

The U.S. Census Bureau just released its new 2010 American Community Survey. A lot of interesting data here, especially as it relates to New Hampshire:

State revenues: Still limping out of the Great Recession

With the new fiscal year just about two months old, early reports on revenue collections are offering a glimpse of the state’s future financial position. The news, so far, is not too encouraging.

Take your data with a grain or two of salt

A story in today’s New York Times discusses one of the ugly truths of economics: Sometimes people make mistakes.

The article, “On Economy, Raw Data Gets a Grain of Salt,” focused on the enormous faith that policymakers, economists and investors place in financial data, such as the rate of economic growth, despite the fact that such data is often based on crude estimates and gets revised after-the-fact to account for errors, faulty assumptions or new information.