Policy Blog NH

Deficits, the Federal Budget and the NH State Budget

The Center recently made a presentation to the House Finance Committe on the status of the 2010-2011 budget, highlighting major uncertainty regarding critical aspects of that budget.  The Obama adminsitration's proposed budget represents the second blow (following on the heels of the JUA deicision) to the stability of the current 2010-2011 New Hamsphrie state budget.   How does President Obama's unveiling of the administration's proposed budget -- and estimates of the potential federal deficit -- change the landscape for budget makers? 

Better news and bad news on the State Budget

First the bad news.  Today the New Hampshire Supreme Court determined that the State could not have $110 million in a medical malpractice insurance fund (JUA).  Originally proposed by the Governor a year ago as one way to help fund the state budget, the Court affirmed a lower court decision barring the state from access to the fund.  Read the Court decision here.

The better news is

Looking Toward the Next Budget Conversation

Interest in the state budget is increasing as the next legislative session approaches.  Steve Norton talked about the state budget recently with the BIA’s Economic Development and Fiscal Policy Committee.  You can find the presentation at http://bit.ly/6HP4xH.  States across the country are also having these conversations.  

What Do November Estimates of State Revenue Mean?

For the twelve months ending November 2009, New Hampshire revenues destined for the General Fund and Education Trust Fund are 3.6% less than for the twelve months ending a year earlier.   What does that mean for the future?  Given the difficulty of predicting anything about the economy right now, no one is really sure.  However, we do know that 2010 revenues will fall short of estimates unless the next 7 month period shows a 3% increase above the same period last year.  In other words, revenue estimates produced as part of last year’s budget process could be accurate, but only if the economic situation is clearly on the mend and the free-fall in state revenues has stopped.   Has it?

 

Bending the Cost Curve: Are Changes in Medicare Enough?

Policy analysts continue to struggle to understand the degree to which health care reform legislation will ‘bend the cost curve.’  Here is an interesting description of some current thinking in the Atlantic Monthly.   How successful have we been at controlling costs in the past?  A look at the past in various markets raises important questions as policy analysts struggle to answer these questions. 

No Sign of a Turnaround in State Revenues Yet

For the twelve months preceding September 2009, New Hampshire revenues destined for the General Fund and Education Trust Fund were 6% less than for the twelve months ending a year earlier. The decline in state revenues is broad based, affecting all revenue sources, whether from business, consumer spending, or gaming.

Declining Prices: Good News for State Policy?

In a recession the demand for goods and services drops, putting downward pressure on prices.   One measure of how severe this recession has been is that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) may actually decline in 2009.  The last time this measure of consumer inflation dropped was in 1956.  This sounds like good news to the average consumer, but there are important state policy questions raised by a declining CPI.  Many policy decisions (including state education funding) are linked to consumer price changes. 

Access to mental health care for poorer children in wealthier communities

The relationship between income and the risk of mental illness has been extensively studied in the US.  Generally speaking, the higher one’s income is the lower the risk for mental illness.  This also holds true for the income of the community as well.  But, that doesn’t mean that the higher income communities in the state are without residents who, unfortunately, struggle with mental health needs.  This is especially true in communities with greater income inequality. 

The I-93 Project: An Incomplete Solution to Traffic

In 2008, the state of New Hampshire dished out over $600 million to expand and redesign 18 miles of the I-93 highway that stretches from Manchester to the Massachusetts border. With this addition of two lanes going either way, many expect the congestion problem that plagues the highway to disappear. There has even been talk of using one of the new lanes to accommodate only bus transit. Will the expansion of I-93 relieve traffic congestion problems? 

An Aging Population Will Affect New Hampshire's Health

Several blogs are pointing to this graph which shows US population by age group from 1950 to 2050.  The Center has developed a similar graph for New Hampshire.

Recession and the State Pension System

Given current economic conditions, state and local appropriations may have to increase by as much as $80 million per year in the next biennium to prop up the state retirement system.  While analysts can argue about the relative magnitude of the issue, the fact that the New Hampshire Pension Plan will again be a topic of considerable debate in the next legislative session is hard to dispute.  How will the legislature respond?